There won't be any official word until after tests are conducted on Thursday, but there's concern in Washington that Nationals rookie Stephen Strasburg might be hurt even worse than previously thought.

ESPN.com's Stephania Bell raised the issue of Strasburg possibly needing Tommy John surgery yesterday in analyzing his latest injury -- to his right forearm -- which forced him to leave his last start in the fifth inning and ultimately land on the disabled list.

Strasburg will under go an MRI arthrogram (in which dye is injected into his arm to make any abnormalities stand out) sometime tomorrow. It could show only a strained flexor tendon (the original diagnosis) or it could reveal a torn ligament in his elbow, which would require reconstructive surgery and sideline him for at least a year. Baseball fans (and fantasy owners) will be holding their collective breath until the results are released.

Even if this turns into a false alarm, the Nationals might decide to shut Strasburg down just to be safe. However, that would also have an impact on how much he'll be able to pitch next season because the Nats don't want their young pitchers to have more than a 20% increase in innings from year to year.

If Strasburg doesn't pitch again in 2010, here's what his maximum innings totals would be if he remains fully healthy.

2010 -- 123 1/3 innings (age 23)
2011 -- 148 innings (age 24)
2012 -- 177 2/3 innings (age 25)
2013 -- 213 innings (age 26)

A typical No. 1 starter, which the Nationals see Strasburg becoming, should make anywhere from 32 to 35 starts in a season. A reasonable comparison might be the Giants' 26-year-old ace Tim Lincecum (33 starts and 227 innings in 2008, 32 and 225 1/3 in 2009, on pace for 33 and 209 this season).

For Strasburg to get to Lincecum's level and stay within the Nationals guidelines, it'll take him until 2013. Keep that in mind when considering Strasburg as an automatic keeper or a target in next season's draft.